October 29th: A Day Off AM Update

Its now 9 am and outside its mostly rain with some wind gusts.  According to what I am seeing the worst is just beginning at this time. Here is a really nice map that shows the path of Sandy. So it appears it has yet to really begin. Well, at around 9:30 I just saw the first looter arrested right outside my kitchen widow.

Man NOT at Work :)

 What you see is an authentic photo of my " office" or as I like to say my orifice. Therefore I am the Oracle or the  Oriole or the Ovaltine of West Philly or at least 44th and Sansom.
Say did you know that Ovaltine was developed in Berne, Switzerland, where it is known by its original name, Ovomaltine (from ovum, Latin for "egg", and malt, originally its main ingredients). Is that not cool or what. There is a double entrendre somewhere or I just left it on the 21 bus....DARN!!
I plan to hunker down till the power goes out or I go back to sleep. Sometimes as an intrepid blogger, I have to lose my sleep. At least the Commonwealth had the decency NOT to have us come in for work. They did not communicate well but hey that is just standard operating procedure for the state. Its good to have the day off.
According to Bryan Norcross, Hurricane Specialist at The Weather Channel the storm is following the weather models that we have seen for the past 3 days. Here is his latest observations.

And so it begins. Mega monster Sandy, with 40+ mph winds 900 miles across and embedded hurricane-force winds is going to hang a left and smash into the Northeast on Monday - a maneuver we've never seen before from system that originated in the tropics. There's no good news from the Hurricane Hunters or the computer forecast models. If anything, the storm is providing more drama in its first act than was expected.

Water is coming over sea walls. Flooding and whipping winds have already started. Just from the fringe of Sandy.

At the coast, by far the worst of this is going to come at high tide at the Jersey Shore and points north. The tide will peak along much of the Northeast coast around 9PM and 9AM, but around noon and midnight on the ocean side of Cape Cod. The difference between low and high tide can be 3 feet and more... a really big deal.

Here is the 11am update!

This one might meet the high/low hype of the media. I saw pictures from Facebook that the shore is already being pounded as of 10am today. The 11AM NHC update has just come out and everything is still pointing towards a landfall between Cape May and Long Beach Island. That means Millville is right in the cross hairs of this massive storm. Some maintain that this storm is a sign of things to come due to global warming!
I conclude this AM edition of French Toast Update with a video I took from my front porch at 11:18 am this very morning.

Have a good day.

Mischief Making Hurricane (Sandy)

Hurricane Sandy is set to arrive Sunday night into Monday  but the hype is in full-swing. I saw NBC10 News show a radar view of the the hurricane during Law and Order while I was at a friend's house. I will not go into a rant into how the media especially the local newscast just scares everyone to buy eggs, milk and bread. Is EVERYONE going to have French Toast (e.g Freedom Toast)?? I think not!  I think of Hurricane Irene last year. I lived in Millville NJ at the time and it was going to be very bad but at least in Millville and Philadelphia it was not that bad.  A NY Times blogger Nate Silver examined the media coverage of various hurricanes and the actual damage. You might find it surprising how hurricane Katrina ranked in Media Coverage. By the way this blog gives excellent polling data.
Here are some photos I captured about the hurricane. This is dated 3AM October 28th

The Expected Path of Sandy

I was linked to the Capitol Weather Gang from the Washington Post. They seem to have a good reputation for calling the weather without the excess hype. My buddy who lives in Silver Spring MD confirmed this with me tonight on the phone. Here is the report as of October 27th:

A simpler explanation: the clash of the cold blast from the continental U.S. and the massive surge of warm, moist air from Hurricane Sandy will cause the storm to explode and the pressure to crash.

These historic low pressure levels simulated by the model are equivalent to a category 3 or 4 hurricane, which have peak winds over 115 mph. But Sandy’s winds will not be that high, because as it transitions into this hybrid hurricane-nor’easter, its core will unwind. So its peak winds will diminish, but strong winds will be felt over a vast area. Think of a compressed slinky expanding as you let it go.

WJLA meteorologist Ryan Miller notes 66,549,869 people live in the National Hurricane Center’s track zone for Sandy. A large percentage of these people will likely contend with tropical storm force winds - 40-60 mph, if not somewhat greater.

I’ll conclude with this note posted in the blog by AccuWeather senior Vice President Mike Smith:

A very prominent and respected National Weather Service meteorologist wrote on Facebook last night,

I’ve never seen anything like this and I’m at a loss for expletives to describe what this storm could do.

The biggest problem is the power going out sometime Monday. My neighbor here on Sansom Street states during hurricane Irene last year, the power was out for about 6 hours. He said it was not too bad. It will be bad if.the power is out longer then 12 hours. In that case, food in the fridge will spoil and I will have to throw it out. This would suck since I am not going to try to apply for FEMA money like so many did last year at my welfare office. The overtime was a big plus though! Mischief

This shows the EXTREME Low Pressure

I will close with more statements from the Capitol Weather Gang about Sandy:

At 11 p.m., Sandy was 360 miles east southeast of Charleston, South Carolina with sustained winds of 75 mph according to the National Hurricane Center. The central pressure was down to 960 mb. Tropical storm force winds extend up to an unreal 520 miles from the center.

Reading through blogs and recent statements from the National Weather Service,         I’m presently most impressed by two things:

1) Sandy’s incredible size and its associated wind field

2) The amount of water it’s going to push ashore at the beaches

Sandy’s size and associated wind

Meteorologist Angela Fritz of wunderground notes Sandy is now tied for the second largest tropical cyclone since 1988.

“Sandy’s tropical storm-force winds now extend 450 nautical miles [520 miles] from the center on the northeast side of the hurricane,” Fritz writes. “This is a very, very large storm, and I suspect the #1 spot (Olga of 2001) is in jeopardy, as well.”

Evidence of the storm’s unusual size? It’s more than 300 miles east of South Carolina, and in eastern North Carolina, the National Weather Service has logged its first reports of downed trees.

Well, I will report on this as long as the electricty and my battery hold up. Enjoy your Sunday, the last dry day for awhile! Enjoy your Sunday before Sandy!