Tuesday, February 05, 2008

What to look for tonite on Super Tuesday


This is the breakdown by states, with the number of delegates in parentheses. All are primaries unless otherwise indicated. WTA indicates winner take all. This is from the Feb 5th NY Times:

ALABAMA (Dems: 52; GOP: 45)

Huckabee working hard to defeat McCain.

Large black population makes this fertile territory for Obama.

ALASKA (caucuses) (Dems: 13; GOP: 26)

Romney making an effort. Ron Paul surprise?

Tilts toward Obama.

ARIZONA (Dems: 56; GOP: 53 WTA)

McCain poised to capture all 53 delegates in a home-state primary.

Hispanic voters are key. They have favored Clinton in early contests but Obama dispatched Sen. Edward M. Kennedy to help.

ARKANSAS (Dems: 35; GOP: 31)

Huckabee's home state.

Clinton was first lady of the state for a dozen years.

CALIFORNIA (Dems: 370; GOP: 170)

McCain and Romney making last-minute stops after polls show the Arizona senator's lead shrinking.

Polls show Obama narrowing Clinton's longtime lead. Hispanic vote is key to delegates.

COLORADO (caucuses) (Dems: 55; GOP: 43)

Romney making a play.

Edge for Obama; party officials planning for large turnout.

CONNECTICUT (Dems: 48; GOP: 27 WTA)

McCain favored in winner-take-all primary.

Democratic battleground. Sen. Chris Dodd, an early presidential race casualty, has not endorsed.

DELAWARE (Dems: 15; GOP: 18 WTA)

McCain favored in winner-take all primary.

Democratic toss-up.

GEORGIA (Dems: 87; GOP: 72)

Three-way tossup for Huckabee, McCain and Romney.

Obama should benefit from a large black population.

IDAHO (Democratic caucuses: 18)

Obama favored, after weekend stop in Boise.

ILLINOIS, (Dems: 153; GOP: 57)

Favors McCain. Delegate names are on the ballot.

Obama's home state; Clinton seeking some delegates.

KANSAS (Democratic caucuses only 32)

Obama favored.

MASSACHUSETTS (Dems: 93; GOP: 40)

Romney's base awards delegates proportionally. McCain campaigned there to pick off delegates.

Obama hopes support from Gov. Deval Patrick and Kennedy can erase Clinton's lead in the polls.

MINNESOTA (caucuses), (Dems: 72; GOP: 38)

McCain has support of Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Sen. Norm Coleman to counter Romney efforts.

Obama hopes for a caucus victory.

MISSOURI (Dems: 72; GOP: 58 WTA)

Most competitive three-way Republican race of the night.

A Clinton-Obama tossup.

MONTANA (GOP caucus: 25 WTA)

Romney tries for another western triumph after Nevada and Wyoming, this one winner-take-all.

NEW JERSEY (Dems: 107; GOP: 52 WTA)

Winner-take-all state should be McCain's.

Polls show race closing in the state next-door to Clinton's New York.

NEW MEXICO (Democratic caucuses: 26)

An early dropout, Gov. Bill Richardson not endorsing. Another Hispanic test for Obama.

NEW YORK (Dems: 232; GOP: 101 WTA)

McCain's, with the help of Rudy Giuliani and large numbers of moderate Republicans.

Clinton's home state. Obama hopes to win his share of delegates.

NORTH DAKOTA (caucuses), (Dems: 13; GOP: 23)

Romney made late effort; McCain could benefit from large military presence.

Obama favored, with the support of Sen. Kent Conrad.

OKLAHOMA (Dems: 38; GOP:38)

Three-way Republican tossup for McCain, Romney and Huckabee.

Clinton territory.

TENNESSEE (Dems: 68; GOP:52)

McCain, Romney and Huckabee all making an effort.

Favors Clinton.

UTAH (Dems: 23; GOP: 36 WTA)

Heavy Mormon population makes it Romney's.

Democratic tossup.

WEST VIRGINIA (GOP state convention: 18 WTA)

Romney attending the convention in hopes of a win. Huckabee also going.

AMERICAN SAMOA (Dem. caucuses: 3)

In a race this close, could American Samoa decide the winner?

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